The Big Fat Indian Dream: India

Showing posts with label India. Show all posts

Wednesday, July 22, 2009

Of obtrusive thoughts and cohesive policies

Once a friend had asked me – “what does life mean to you?” Being in the prime of my life I had nonchalantly stated that “life is what happens to you, while you are busy planning other things” – a quote misused frequently these days. Probably I was living in a world of ‘make believe’ and boy those were the times then. The economy rose to steep heights, GDP touched new frontiers, stock markets climbed to new highs on a daily basis – without any solid reason to do so. People invested in an illusory bubble and boy did that justify the returns initially – justifying further investment.

Coming back to reality and current times – I cannot help but notice the false sense of security that most people had placed on the economy some time back has currently gone bust. And the most humorous yet probably short term measure that was suggested some time back can probably take the sagging global economy head-on and turn it around. In a world of conspicuous conspiracy theories and jagged claims this might just be it.

"What America needs right now is not more talk and long-term strategy, but a concrete way to create more imaginary wealth in the very immediate future," said Thomas Jenkins, CFO of the Boston-area Jenkins Financial Group, a bubble-based investment firm. "We are in a crisis, and that crisis demands an unviable short-term solution.”

Well this might apply to India as well. The housing bubble took off a few years back – rising demand was met throughout – but with the shinning failure of the government to curb the market with correct policies and regulations – prices shot off – leading to the market escalating false demand cases – a vicious cycle of price coup in an open economy. Everyone wanted a price of this bubble – and when the bubble burst – we all know the story right.

So technically if we do live in a world of make believe and false imagery does make the world go round then why not continue living a life of make believe. At least most people around won’t have a issue with coffee table discussions around global recession, Rakhi’s swayambar and Obama’s new muse. Like some bright politician stated a few days back on an issue to address India’s population burst, “Marry late, Watch TV”. Are we so dumb that we need the idiot box as a way to curb population control – who is this directed to? The middle class toiling away in a private firm, burdened under taxes and loans or the “real” Indian toiling away in the fields with no access to electricity, education, normal living conditions. So we are to dump education and stop enlightening peoples minds on what’s right and what’s wrong and instead follow medieval tactics to curb something as simple as population control.

Mr. Minister please go back to school.

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Monday, February 16, 2009

the economy and the escapist Indian

well….we all have heard the word “recession” looming large over the global market for the last 2-3 quarters and it seems that the baby is here to stay – well at least for the next 2-3 quarters that’s what pundits say. So realistically what does it mean for the average India – let’s put it into perspective.

- inflation dipped to jan 2008 figures at around 5%

- home loans at lower 7.50-8% monthly reducing

- property prices slashed by 10-15% at most places

- shops offering discounts galore in a last ditch attempt to move merchandise

Well all seems hunky dory then – Indian markets seem to be on an upswing trajectory, or is it? Around half a million workers in India have lost jobs between October and December 2008, according to sources in the labor ministry. It is estimated that by end of March the total job losses in India's export oriented units may mount to over 1.5 million. In contrast the picture does not seem as rosy a before.

The problem is that the market sentiment has touched rock bottom - India being mainly a services economy seems to have been affected some what by the US economy downswing. But somehow data seems to show that Indians and Asians as a bunch seem to be doing comparatively well. Yes the attrition rates are lower, raises are almost non-existent but India offers a beacon of hope.

According to the latest Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence Study. The survey is the largest bi-annual study of its kind, covering more than 26,000 internet users in 52 countries. Savings save Indians – it seems.

Sixteen per cent of those polled in the country think it is an excellent time for jobs, while 59% feel it’s a good time. Consequently, the respondents’ perception of personal finances is just as glowing, as India topped the list as the most optimistic with 77%; 9%of Indians think it’s an excellent time while 68% opine it’s a good time.

In keeping with the negative global sentiment, 38 out of 52 countries are pessimistic about the economic situation in their country in the second half of 2008 with 63% of the respondents saying that they believe they are in recession. Only three countries think they will be out of the economic recession in the next 12 months: China, India and Vietnam.

Absolute numbers have come down in India. Six months ago, 26% thought it was an excellent time for jobs while 60% said it was a good time. On the personal finance front, things are down by two percentage points. A report released by jobs portal Naukri.com states the overall job index in October 2008 was 781 as against 1,000 in July 2008. That’s a decline of a whopping 21.9%. It is not as bad as the United States, but the numbers are down with many sectors retrenching or holding hiring.

The most palpable of all fears is the one that has stricken business schools. Many firms are not going to B-schools this year. The spokesperson for Indian School of Business agrees that the coming placements season will be challenging.

While the rest of the world may be living from pay cheque to pay cheque, 58% of Indian respondents said they were in the saving mode. Indians have gone a step further and slashed spending on holidays and vacations by 10 points. Spending on new clothes and out-of-home entertainment has dropped two and eight points, respectively. But not much has changed with regard to paying off debts, credit cards and loans.

Saving continues to be a high priority in these times of uncertainties. In India savings remains the biggest priority, with 58% consumers preferring to save their spare cash, almost the same as six months ago.

Net net amidst the global lull though the only thing Indians have down is to cut down on the shopping and entertainment front – so we see lesser footfalls in malls and even lesser outright purchases. And yes thoughts of the luxury car and the second home have been put on hold - at least for short while. While that is bad news for the retail industry and other associated industries that grew along with the sentiments of those times. As Indians want their money’s worth now even more so than before - we might be looking at companies coming out with innovative products and price points to set the market going. One way or the other the escapist Indian is the winner.

All hail the escapist Indian.

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Thursday, January 15, 2009

the rise and the fall....

"Satyameva Jayate" (Sanskrit: "Truth Alone Triumphs") is the national motto of India. It is inscribed in Devanagari script at the base of the national emblem, which is an adaptation of the Lion Capital of Asoka at Sarnath, near Varanasi in the north Indian state of Uttar Pradesh. The origin of the motto is a well-known mantra from the mundaka Upanishad.

In context for the last few weeks the apparently senseless news channels are airing their views and presenting sensational (masaladar) takes on the whole event - the common man, the shareholders (well the smaller ones) and the employees are at their wit's end. So where is the truth? Are we actually surveying the real truth or have the so called perpetrators of truth and information decided that stirring up the fragmented pieces of information collected, in a melting pot with bad presentation and weird assumptions would lead to a better selling information piece and higher TRP ratings. And I thought that reporters and news houses were supposed to find and highlight the real truth – at least that’s what my uncle once told me a long time ago.

Well I will & refrain from commenting on the situation that one of the biggest IT vendors in India finds itself today, story but after careful scrutinizing and observing the proceedings I will but just present a spoiler in the making, drawing a hypothesis with the Enron story - one of the most tragic and sinister instances of corporate crime in American history. Well for starters the case of the above mentioned Indian player might be just up there in the Indian perspective.

I did not follow the story well when the news first broke in 2000-2001 but followed it closely in my fourth year of bachelors. By 2002 as far as I remember not only Enron but its accountancy firm Anderson Consulting went bankrupt and some investors of Merrill Lynch were indicted for fraudulent Enron-related business.

Well the story starts in 1985 with the foundation of Enron a traditional energy supply company, by the chairman Mr Lay (Can’t remember his first name !!!) – Enron grew into a "energy commodities” in the late 90’s under the then COO Jefferey Skilling. Under his famous but equally weird “hypothetical future value” policy, Enron started overlooking current losses and started booking non-existent future profits. For e.g. if you took a home loan of say 30 lakhs today in 2009 as a case of financial investment – normal balance statements should indicate today a debt of 30 lakhs. Suppose you sold this house in 2012 for 40 lakhs then Enron in this example would cite a profit of 10 lakhs and book it today i.e. in 2009 itself. (Any resemblance here to the Indian perspective).

One of Enron later CFO’s too played the cards well getting the top investment banks to invest big time in Enron citing false inflated balance sheets – and getting these huge sums to pay off Enron’s debts. Another way was to siphon off debts to sister concerns or subsidiaries or limited liability companies most of which were headed by the top management itself. So the game continued till 2001-02 when the govt. and the investors started taking the P&L sheets seriously and it was matter of time when the truth came out. The management went off with over 100 million USD in bonuses wheres the normal personal were left with 4000 USD as severance package and zero value 401k plans. It must be mentioned that within a short span of time most of top management who had huge shares in the company sold it off wheres the employee’s stock options plans were frozen. Yet another similarity here with the India story.

Well to put it in perspective the govt. put its weight behind Enron throughout – from the Bush presidency to higher circles within the Senate and California – huge projects, deregulation of the electric industry and manipulation of electricity charges – well this would not have been possible without the reality of red tape there. Cut to Hyderabad and Bangalore – huge projects including roadways, metro etc to a particular infrastructure company owned by the chairman could not have been possible without the govt. backing here. Well the apparent merger of the two companies could have fooled the people even more had it gone through smoothly– who knows.

So should we call this a blatant case of corporate “fraudalism” – or is it just a question of timing. Maybe, had the global markets not tanked the Indian corporate romantic story could have continued – this could have emerged even rosier with the kind of respect and market sentiment that the Indian player commanded both globally and in India. Another biggie in the petroleum and natural gas as well as telecommunications industry too commands equal respect though there have been innumerable instances of stories of frauds and corporate deceit surfacing every now and then but never enough to gain speed.

Well some will say that it was a case of actual deceit or simply bad luck. I am sure this is not the first nor will be the last to surface soon. (The news of Nortel tanking just came in….)

It’s said that we don't grow unless we take risks and that any successful company is riddled with failures. Well I hope and pray that that in the long run it does. Somehow my hope goes out to the 50000 odd people and their families that are/were associated in one way or the other with the company.

God bless.

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Thursday, September 18, 2008

a failing state....

In a paper titled, "Is India a Flailing State? Detours on the Four Lane Highway to Modernization", economist Pritchett of Harvard Kennedy School had said, "India is today a flailing state — a nation-state in which the head, that is the elite institutions at the national (and in some states) level remain sound and functional but this head is no longer reliably connected via nerves and sinews to its own limbs. In many parts of India, in many sectors, the everyday actions of the field level agents of the state: policemen, engineers, teachers, health workers, are increasingly beyond the control of the administration at the national or state level."

Case in Point

1. July 25, 2008: Bangalore, India - A series of nine bombs exploded in which two people were killed and 20 injured. According to the Bangalore City Police, the blasts were caused by low-intensity crude bombs triggered by timer. Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami, SIMI and Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Toiba were the prime suspects behind this.

2. July 26, 2008: Ahmadabad, India - A series of 21 bomb blasts rocks the city within a span of 70 minutes. According to sources 56 people were killed and over 200 people were injured. Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami has claimed the responsibility of the blasts.

3. September 13, 2008: Delhi, India – The national capital was rocked from its slumber when five bombs went off in succession in Karol Bagh, Connaught Place, and Greater Kailash I, killing at least 18 people and injuring over 90. Two live bombs were reportedly defused. The relatively new Indian Mujahideen claimed responsibility for these blasts….sending an e-mail to media channels minutes before the first blast.

Well the media flooded the common man with coverage of these news items 24/7 on live, print and other media – well for a short period albeit. After a couple of days it was all back to square one – redundant politicians, insensitive media and the equally numb common man on the streets getting back to normalcy in quick time. Many will advertise this occurring as the general disposition of Indians to resume normalcy even in midst of appalling circumstances but have we as human beings and Indian have turned so numb that we are not cognizant of the fact that we need to sensitize ourselves of this situation. Its been 7 years to the date when the US was shaken by the terror strike at NY – its still draws emotional responses from almost every other American that I have come across. I am yet to come across an average Indian who feels the same way about the people and the blasts that rocked Bangalore, Ahmedabad and Delhi recently. Or the Parliament attack or the blast in Varanasi or Delhi (Sarojininagar earlier)? Have we all stopped caring?

It is almost nauseating, the repetitiveness of the words that the reporters and politicians keep parroting after each incident. Wish they stopped telling us about how ‘high’ are the spirits of the people in affected areas after these incidents. Whose spirits were high anyway? The people who lost loved ones? The people who were maimed for life? The people who were left in a vegetative state or coma because of the injuries they suffered in these blasts? The children who were orphaned? The families who were left without their wage earners? Who are they trying to kid? Who are they trying to convince with these statements? It is easy to stand outside the hospitals and near the bomb blast sites after the incidents have occurred already.

The media should have presented the news in a sensitive manner – bringing out the real emotions, the pain and the anger and that in reality the police were helpless in the face of such organized terro even in the state capital Delhi. Unless the truth is revealed, no serious effort will ever be made in this country to try and end this series of terror strikes unleashed with monotonous regularity by the terrorists. For too long we have been in a state of denial about this cancer that is eating our country from within. It suits our politicians to keep us in this state of denial by feeding us stories of ‘heroism’ and ‘stoicism’ in the face of these terrorist created situations. It is time now to stand up and say we are hurting, to admit that our lives are being cruelly affected, to show and share our pain and our tears.

Solutions can be devised only if we admit that there is a problem. So let us shame and force our leaders into acknowledging that terrorism is a real and serious problem that needs to be tackled now.

While the common man in India (especially Calcutta) debate for hours whether POTA or a new law be enacted with fervor by the govt. all in while in the middle of whether TATA should quit Singhur - we fail to realize that it is us who are indirectly responsible for the terror that is spreading within. The so caller “war-on-terror” if it exits should involve all. The Gandhis and the Mulayams and the Lalus and the Advanis should come together and form a time-bound terror elimination program. To resolve the petty differences and to liberate India from the dreaded scourge of jihad and all other kinds of terror we feel shy and instead keep ourselves busy in attacking each other, facilitating the country's enemies. Their dictates must show an impact on Islamic terror outfits (or any other for that matter), otherwise its papers and faxes would remain nothing more than a crude PR exercise. It's the bounden duty of Muslim leaders to make it sure and visible that those involved in jihadi barbaric attacks are condemned as un-Islamic and are practically declared non-Muslims like they have done with regard to many others in the past. And the common man should be equally responsible about the citizens duties ( I wish the common man was cognizant of the differences between a civilian and a citizen)

I do not wish to draw any analogies here – I do not believe that Muslims or any other community can be held responsible for such attacks – there were, are and probably will be people in any community who will fall out with normal social ideologies and norms.

A nation's collective will is the biggest weapon against fissiparous tendencies. The US and China have shown that. They too faced Islamic terror, but handled it with a resolve that got united support by the people and all shades of political colours. Indians can fight each other on a hundred issues of political programming or power grab. But on the question of our sovereignty and security we must stand united, as one – and it must be visible too. After all, where would all these leaders take their money and enjoy it if India doesn't survive? Even to enjoy the loot they must have a station to leisure and be free of threats. To say this is too rude and crude, yet, seeing the Delhi, Jaipur, Bangalore and Ahmadabad blasts, what can a citizen pray for? Security and a collective will to converge on national interest.

Act fast and act now should be the core mantra - r else just like Pritchett the entire world would be looking at us as a flailing state thereafter.

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Wednesday, July 30, 2008

Calcutta in my heart.....

the story goes back more than 2 decades back to a small family settled in the heart of a bustling city we now know as Kolkata. A young boy was born on a fateful day of Sankranti - reminiscent of the fact that it marked also the day of the creator read “Karthik” of Hindu mythology. While he grew up knowing his alma-mater as Calcutta he took pride in the fact that Calcutta was unparalleled in its own sense – neither vast nor lonely as the capital Delhi and never ever on the move 24/7 like Mumbai. Warmth of its people and the cultural heritage it entailed (that was debatable by random acts of foolhardiness by its people) – always made it stand out amongst the contemporaries. While the education he received through the best schools and colleges in the state made him a little impulsive of performing the Herculean task of taking the world by its horns and bringing it down like the dreaded serpent in Greek mythology – its was few years later spending time away for further education and job life made him realize that there was lot more to life. And a lot more to what Calcutta had led him to believe – the naïve mind was in turn for a big jolt.

While in this years away from Calcutta which was later re-christened to Kolkata – the charm was probably lost with the change in name and maybe the change of heart. Maybe the alma–mater did not want a change – perhaps the name itself had come to epitomize its uniqueness. Somewhere yes the city seemed to have a change of heart with a change in name – the spirit of Calcutta was lost.

Coming back to the boys story – most of his friends had left a lot earlier post school or after college – either in other states of India or in the US. And most of them never came back – probably they in hindsight realized that the city was a lost cause. Inefficient politics and a care-not attitude of people – basically meant that the city was taken for granted. Seeing all the boy felt that he was alienated – the lakes, the streets and the skyline though apparently similar had somehow lost their calling – the glitzy malls and the glitter of people seemed to have drowned the voices of lil children playing in the parks, an odd couple sipping on a cup of coffee in coffee house or the cheer of boys fighting it out in the mud and drizzle in maidan.

The boy in between his years away from Calcutta had grown into a man – looking life from a much different angle that most of his age. Experience had taught him to be cautious and at least sometimes politically correct at certain situations. While all these years the family and his love – were the only reason for him to rush back once in a while – the city’s cold arms took the heat of his hearts emotion away, leaving love was so difficult. But what he realized much later – the love was lost long time back, the city’s cold menace has drowned his love in depths where his voice could not reach. The city he could no longer call home – he chose to remain aloof at times – not wanting to return at times conscious of the fact that the pain inside may not have subsided enough. The family back in Calcutta – was the only light at the end of the tunnel for which he made an occasional trip home. He visited many place throughout the years – saw the length and breadth of many and soaked in the cultures of many places – yet none could he call home. None where he could cuddle up in a monsoon afternoon after a round of khichdi and ilish mach – none where could look at the skyline and imagine going back all those years – those wonder years where life could be anything, you could challenge the world and dream to win, where the world was your oyster – where you had not actually grown up. Growing up sometimes takes away the romance in life – the city might have actually grown up – Calcutta might have been a uncanny teenager trying to find its feet in this world and ultimately found its feet – but I wonder how many of us would want the old Calcutta back.

Oh Calcutta – we want you back, to the glorious.

And coming back again to our story the lil boy was me – it’s the collective stories of millions of people that have shaped the story of Calcutta – the city is wired up with the collective emotions, the tribulations of its own citizens.

One of the biggest exponents of the talk show bizz in the States once commented, “The biggest adventure you can ever take is to live the life of your dreams”………….. – I wonder if we all tried a bit harder maybe our lives could have a lot better and the city could have taken a different shape over the years. But then again its normal human tendency to take the easy way out.